Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 100% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 100% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 100% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 100% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 100% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2H Moneyline | 100% |
| Sacramento State O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| O/U 37.5 | 0% |
| O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| O/U 41.5 | 0% |
| O/U 43.5 | 0% |
| O/U 45.5 | 0% |
| O/U 47.5 | 0% |
| O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| O/U 51.5 | 0% |
| O/U 53.5 | 0% |
| O/U 55.5 | 0% |
| O/U 57.5 | 0% |
| O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| O/U 61.5 | 0% |
| O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| O/U 67.5 | 0% |
| O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| O/U 71.5 | 0% |
| O/U 73.5 | 0% |
| O/U 75.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 0% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 0% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 0% |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toledo O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Spread -46.5 | 0% |
| Spread -43.5 | 0% |
| Spread -42.5 | 0% |
| Spread -40.5 | 0% |
| Spread -39.5 | 0% |
| Spread -36.5 | 0% |
| Spread -34.5 | 0% |
| Spread -33.5 | 0% |
| Spread -32.5 | 0% |
| Spread -31.5 | 0% |
| Spread -30.5 | 0% |
| Spread -29.5 | 0% |
| Spread -28.5 | 0% |
| Spread -27.5 | 0% |
| Spread -26.5 | 0% |
| Spread -25.5 | 0% |
| Spread -24.5 | 0% |
| Spread -23.5 | 0% |
| Spread -22.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -18.5 | 0% |
| Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Toledo vs. Sacramento State" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming college football game between Toledo and Sacramento State, scheduled for November 4 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game. This market will resolve …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $919K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
Jetzt „Prognose: Toledo vs. Sacramento State" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →