Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 81% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 72% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 71% |
| O/U 34.5 | 70% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 62% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 44% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 18% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Seahawks vs. Broncos. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 57% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-16T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $596K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Seahawks vs. Broncos" auf Prognosewetten handeln
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