Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Steelers vs. Saints | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2H Moneyline | 100% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| O/U 42.5 | 0% |
| O/U 44.5 | 0% |
| O/U 46.5 | 0% |
| O/U 48.5 | 0% |
| O/U 50.5 | 0% |
| O/U 52.5 | 0% |
| O/U 54.5 | 0% |
| O/U 56.5 | 0% |
| O/U 58.5 | 0% |
| O/U 60.5 | 0% |
| O/U 62.5 | 0% |
| O/U 64.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 0% |
| Safety? | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 0% |
| Steelers vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Steelers vs. Saints. In the upcoming NFL football game between Steelers and Saints, scheduled for October 25 at 9:30AM ET: This market will resolve to "Steelers" if Steelers win the game. This market will resolve to "Sain…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $3.8M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
Jetzt „Prognose: Steelers vs. Saints" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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