Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| O/U 36.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 89% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 86% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| O/U 39.5 | 83% |
| O/U 40.5 | 83% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 47.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 62% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 49.5 | 59% |
| O/U 50.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| O/U 52.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 48% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 47% |
| O/U 53.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 42% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 32% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 26% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| O/U 62.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| O/U 63.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 16% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Commanders vs. 49ers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 93%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game. This market will resolve to …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $167K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Commanders vs. 49ers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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