Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 85% |
| O/U 29.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 82% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 32.5 | 73% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| O/U 33.5 | 71% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 63% |
| O/U 35.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 59% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 58% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| O/U 37.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| O/U 38.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants vs. Commanders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 47% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| O/U 40.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 42.5 | 37% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 43.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Giants vs. Commanders | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| O/U 44.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 45.5 | 26% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 51.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 46.5 | 24% |
| O/U 47.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 55.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 20% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 20% |
| O/U 57.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 48.5 | 19% |
| O/U 58.5 | 19% |
| O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| O/U 49.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| O/U 50.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 52.5 | 12% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 53.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| O/U 56.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 59.5 | 4% |
| O/U 65.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| O/U 62.5 | 3% |
| O/U 69.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Giants vs. Commanders — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Giants and Commanders, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Giants" if Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "Comman…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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