Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 100% |
| O/U 29.5 | 99% |
| O/U 38.5 | 99% |
| O/U 37.5 | 98% |
| O/U 36.5 | 98% |
| O/U 40.5 | 98% |
| O/U 41.5 | 97% |
| Spread -1.5 | 96% |
| Spread -3.5 | 95% |
| O/U 42.5 | 95% |
| O/U 43.5 | 94% |
| Spread -2.5 | 94% |
| O/U 44.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Spread -4.5 | 90% |
| Spread -5.5 | 89% |
| O/U 45.5 | 88% |
| O/U 47.5 | 88% |
| O/U 46.5 | 88% |
| Spread -6.5 | 86% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 83% |
| Spread -7.5 | 81% |
| O/U 48.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| Spread -8.5 | 77% |
| Spread -9.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Spread -10.5 | 76% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 75% |
| O/U 50.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| O/U 49.5 | 69% |
| O/U 51.5 | 68% |
| Spread -13.5 | 65% |
| O/U 53.5 | 63% |
| O/U 52.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 54.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -14.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -16.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Spread -17.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -19.5 | 37% |
| O/U 58.5 | 37% |
| Spread -21.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| O/U 59.5 | 34% |
| Spread -20.5 | 34% |
| O/U 61.5 | 29% |
| O/U 64.5 | 29% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Raiders vs. Patriots | 4% |
| Spread -1.5 | 3% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Raiders vs. Patriots — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Raiders and Patriots, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Raiders" if Raiders win the game. This market will resolve to "Patri…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.7M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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