Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 79% |
| O/U 212.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 215.5 | 68% |
| O/U 218.5 | 62% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 57% |
| O/U 221.5 | 56% |
| O/U 222.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 223.5 | 52% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 224.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| O/U 225.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 228.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 39% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 231.5 | 34% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 234.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 13% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 79% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $76K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23be123c%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →