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Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers

So preist der Markt „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers" gerade ein — Live-Quoten, Anbieter-Vergleich, Quellen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch.

O/U 204.5 96% O/U 206.5 94% O/U 208.5 93% O/U 210.5 91% Volumen: $865K Liquidität: $3.1M Schließt: 26 Oct 2026
Live-Markt öffnen →
Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers

Plattform-Vergleich

PlattformJA-QuoteNEIN-QuoteGebührKYCAuszahlung
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
96% 4% 0 % (USDC on-chain) Bis $1.500 ohne KYC USDC, automatisch via UMA Live-Quoten ansehen →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
96% 4% 0% Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH USDC, on-chain Live-Quoten ansehen →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Bis 7 % pro Trade US-only, KYC erforderlich USD Live-Quoten ansehen →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5 % Kommission Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade GBP / EUR Live-Quoten ansehen →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Spielgeld (mana) Keine — Spielgeld Mana (kein Cash-Out) Live-Quoten ansehen →

Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.

ErgebnisWahrscheinlichkeit
O/U 204.596%
O/U 206.594%
O/U 208.593%
O/U 210.591%
O/U 212.589%
O/U 214.587%
Cavaliers O/U 106.585%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.584%
O/U 216.583%
Timberwolves O/U 103.583%
James Harden: Points O/U 9.581%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 1.581%
Cavaliers O/U 108.581%
O/U 218.580%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.580%
1H O/U 107.580%
1H O/U 101.579%
1H O/U 103.579%
1H O/U 105.579%
1H O/U 97.579%
1H O/U 99.579%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 1.578%
Timberwolves O/U 105.578%
O/U 220.576%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 1.575%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.575%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.574%
Cavaliers O/U 110.574%
Timberwolves O/U 107.573%
O/U 222.572%
2Q O/U 51.572%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.571%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 0.570%
Cavaliers O/U 112.570%
O/U 224.568%
James Harden: Assists O/U 3.568%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.568%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.568%
1Q O/U 45.568%
Timberwolves O/U 109.568%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.567%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 3.567%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.567%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.567%
Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.567%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 3.566%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.566%
2Q O/U 53.566%
Race to 1065%
O/U 226.565%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.565%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.565%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.565%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.564%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.564%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.563%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.563%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.563%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 1.563%
1H O/U 109.563%
Cavaliers O/U 114.563%
O/U 228.562%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.562%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.562%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 9.562%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.562%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.561%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.561%
Timberwolves O/U 111.561%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.560%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 58.560%
Spread -1.559%
3Q O/U 58.559%
O/U 230.557%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.557%
1H O/U 111.557%
4Q O/U 56.557%
Spread -2.556%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.556%
Cavaliers O/U 116.556%
Timberwolves O/U 113.556%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 1.555%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.555%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 59.555%
Spread -3.554%
James Harden: Assists O/U 5.554%
1H Spread -1.554%
O/U 232.553%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.553%
2Q O/U 55.553%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 56.553%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.552%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.552%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.552%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 1.552%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 1.552%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.552%
Cavaliers O/U 118.552%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 55.552%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 57.552%
Team to Score First51%
O/U 233.551%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.551%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 5.551%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.551%
James Harden: Assists O/U 1.551%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.551%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 1.551%
1H O/U 113.551%
3Q O/U 60.551%
Odd/Even Score50%
Overtime?50%
Spread -4.550%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 9.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 14.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.550%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
1Q Spread -3.550%
1Q Spread -5.550%
1Q Spread -4.550%
1Q Spread -6.550%
1Q O/U 57.550%
2Q Spread -3.550%
2Q Spread -4.550%
3Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Spread -5.550%
3Q Spread -2.550%
3Q Spread -4.550%
3Q Spread -6.550%
3Q O/U 54.550%
3Q O/U 56.550%
4Q Spread -3.550%
4Q Spread -2.550%
4Q Spread -4.550%
4Q O/U 60.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 63.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 55.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 57.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 59.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 61.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 53.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 55.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 57.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 59.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 61.550%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Steals O/U 0.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Steals O/U 1.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Steals O/U 2.550%
O/U 234.549%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.549%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.549%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.549%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.549%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.549%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 1.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.549%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.549%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.549%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.549%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.549%
Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.549%
James Harden: Steals O/U 0.549%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.549%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.549%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.549%
Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 1.549%
Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 0.549%
Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 1.549%
Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 2.549%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.549%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.549%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.549%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 3.549%
Timberwolves O/U 115.549%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.548%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.548%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 52.548%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.547%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.547%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.547%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.547%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.547%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.547%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.547%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.547%
James Harden: Steals O/U 2.547%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 2.547%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 54.547%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 29.547%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.546%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.546%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.546%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.546%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.546%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.546%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.546%
1H Spread -3.546%
Race to 2045%
Spread -5.545%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.545%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.545%
Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.545%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.545%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.545%
2Q O/U 57.545%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.545%
O/U 236.544%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.544%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.544%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.544%
1H O/U 115.544%
Cavaliers O/U 120.544%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 61.544%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 53.544%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.543%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.543%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.543%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.543%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.543%
1Q Spread -2.543%
2Q Spread -2.543%
Spread -6.542%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.542%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.542%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.542%
Timberwolves O/U 117.542%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.541%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.541%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 1.541%
O/U 238.540%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.540%
1H Moneyline40%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.540%
1Q O/U 59.540%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers39%
Spread -7.539%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 2.539%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.539%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.539%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.539%
1H Spread -0.539%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.538%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 19.538%
James Harden: Steals O/U 1.538%
Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 0.538%
1H Spread -5.538%
1H O/U 117.538%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.537%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.537%
Cavaliers O/U 122.537%
Spread -8.536%
Spread -1.536%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.536%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.536%
Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.536%
Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 0.536%
1Q Spread -1.536%
Timberwolves O/U 119.536%
James Harden: Points O/U 14.535%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.535%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.534%
James Harden: Assists O/U 7.534%
Spread -9.533%
James Harden: Points O/U 16.533%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.533%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.533%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 8.533%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.533%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 60.533%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.532%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.532%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.532%
1H Spread -2.532%
Cavaliers O/U 124.532%
Spread -3.531%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.531%
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.531%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.531%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.531%
2Q O/U 59.531%
Spread -10.530%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.530%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.530%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.530%
1H Spread -7.530%
3Q O/U 62.530%
Timberwolves O/U 121.530%
3Q Spread -1.529%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.528%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.528%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.528%
1Q O/U 61.528%
4Q O/U 58.528%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.527%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.527%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.527%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.527%
4Q Spread -1.527%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 13.526%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.526%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.526%
1H Spread -4.526%
2Q Spread -1.526%
Cavaliers O/U 126.526%
Race to 3025%
Spread -5.525%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.525%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.525%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.525%
Timberwolves O/U 123.525%
Spread -12.524%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.524%
James Harden: Points O/U 19.524%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.524%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.524%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.524%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.523%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.523%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.523%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.523%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.523%
1H Spread -9.523%
1Q O/U 63.523%
3Q O/U 64.523%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.522%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.522%
Spread -7.521%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.521%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.521%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.521%
1H O/U 119.521%
3Q O/U 66.521%
Spread -14.520%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 9.520%
Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.520%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.520%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.520%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.520%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.520%
1H O/U 123.520%
1H O/U 121.520%
Cavaliers O/U 128.520%
Timberwolves O/U 125.520%
O/U 250.519%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.519%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.519%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 3.519%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 3.519%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.519%
Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 1.519%
1H Spread -6.519%
1H O/U 127.519%
1Q O/U 65.519%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.518%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.518%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.518%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.518%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.518%
1H Spread -11.518%
1H O/U 125.518%
Spread -16.517%
Spread -9.517%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.517%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.517%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.517%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.517%
1H O/U 129.517%
O/U 252.516%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.516%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.516%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.516%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.516%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.516%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.516%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.515%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.515%
James Harden: Assists O/U 9.515%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.515%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.515%
1Q O/U 67.515%
Spread -18.514%
O/U 254.514%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.514%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.514%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.514%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.514%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 34.514%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.514%
1H Spread -8.514%
1H Spread -13.514%
Spread -11.513%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.513%
James Harden: Points O/U 29.513%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.513%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.512%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 9.512%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.512%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 34.512%
1Q O/U 69.512%
Spread -20.511%
O/U 256.511%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.511%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 9.511%
Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 3.511%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.511%
James Harden: Points O/U 34.511%
Spread -13.510%
O/U 258.510%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.510%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.510%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.510%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.510%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.510%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.510%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 5.510%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.510%
James Harden: Assists O/U 11.510%
Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 2.510%
1H Spread -10.510%
James Harden: Points O/U 24.59%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.59%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.59%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.59%
1H Spread -15.59%
Spread -15.58%
Spread -22.58%
O/U 260.58%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.58%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.58%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.58%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 44.58%
1H Spread -12.58%
1H Spread -17.58%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.57%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.57%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.57%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.57%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 19.57%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.57%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 5.57%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.57%
1H Spread -19.57%
Spread -24.56%
Spread -17.56%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.56%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.56%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.56%
1H Spread -14.56%
Spread -21.55%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.55%
Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.55%
Spread -19.54%
Spread -26.54%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 19.54%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 19.54%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 7.54%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 7.54%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 5.54%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 5.54%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 5.54%
1H Spread -16.54%
Spread -28.53%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.53%
Spread -23.52%
Spread -30.52%
Spread -32.52%

Markt-Kontext

Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 26 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If th…

Live-Daten & Statistiken

Der Polymarket-Orderbuch-Preis bewertet O/U 204.5 mit 96% bei "Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers".

O/U 204.5 96% Andere 4%

Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $865K.

Methodik dieser Bewertung

Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.

Auflösung & Auszahlung

Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.

Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.

Häufige Fragen

Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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