Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 202.5 | 96% |
| O/U 204.5 | 95% |
| O/U 206.5 | 94% |
| O/U 208.5 | 94% |
| O/U 210.5 | 93% |
| O/U 212.5 | 91% |
| O/U 214.5 | 88% |
| O/U 216.5 | 84% |
| O/U 218.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| O/U 220.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 222.5 | 76% |
| Bucks O/U 102.5 | 76% |
| 76ers O/U 116.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 73% |
| O/U 224.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 70% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 69% |
| 76ers O/U 118.5 | 68% |
| Spread -7.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| O/U 228.5 | 65% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Bucks O/U 106.5 | 64% |
| 76ers O/U 120.5 | 62% |
| Spread -9.5 | 61% |
| O/U 230.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| Spread -10.5 | 58% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| Bucks O/U 108.5 | 58% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 76ers O/U 122.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Bucks O/U 98.5 | 53% |
| O/U 234.5 | 52% |
| Bucks O/U 110.5 | 52% |
| Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 39.5 | 49% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| 76ers O/U 130.5 | 49% |
| 76ers O/U 124.5 | 49% |
| O/U 236.5 | 48% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| 76ers O/U 136.5 | 47% |
| Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| Bucks O/U 100.5 | 45% |
| Bucks O/U 112.5 | 45% |
| Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 76ers O/U 114.5 | 44% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 34.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 39.5 | 42% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 24.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 41% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Spread -15.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 40% |
| Bucks O/U 104.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 39% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Bucks O/U 114.5 | 39% |
| Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 38% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| O/U 242.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| Bucks O/U 116.5 | 35% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| Spread -18.5 | 33% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 33% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 244.5 | 29% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Bucks O/U 118.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| O/U 246.5 | 27% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| O/U 248.5 | 24% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| 76ers O/U 132.5 | 24% |
| Spread -22.5 | 23% |
| 1H Moneyline | 23% |
| Bucks O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| O/U 250.5 | 21% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 18% |
| 76ers O/U 134.5 | 18% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | 16% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 16% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Bucks O/U 122.5 | 13% |
| Spread -28.5 | 12% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -30.5 | 9% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| Spread -34.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Spread -40.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Bucks vs. 76ers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is postponed, t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $157K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Bucks vs. 76ers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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