Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 65% |
| O/U 46.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 58% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Moneyline | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots vs. Bears | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Safety? | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 62.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 95% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Patriots vs. Bears. In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market will resolve to "Bears…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $127K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Patriots vs. Bears" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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