Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 98% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 22% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →