Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 83% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23be123c%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →