Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 62% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 93%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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