Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 99% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 98% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 21% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: argentina vs. egypt - player props 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props" auf Prognosewetten handeln
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