Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 91% |
| O/U 35.5 | 82% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| O/U 39.5 | 73% |
| O/U 41.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| Fresno State O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| 2H Moneyline | 64% |
| Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| O/U 43.5 | 56% |
| Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 49% |
| O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 49% |
| Fresno State vs. San Diego State | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 55.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 75.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 51.5 | 24% |
| O/U 71.5 | 24% |
| O/U 67.5 | 23% |
| O/U 69.5 | 23% |
| O/U 73.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| O/U 53.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 17% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 57.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 9% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 65.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Fresno State vs. San Diego State. In the upcoming college football game between Fresno State and San Diego State, scheduled for October 17 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game. This ma…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $185K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Fresno State vs. San Diego State auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Fresno State vs. San Diego State" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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