Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| O/U 40.5 | 100% |
| O/U 42.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Appalachian State O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| NC State 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| NC State 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| NC State 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| O/U 46.5 | 98% |
| O/U 52.5 | 94% |
| O/U 54.5 | 94% |
| Spread -3.5 | 93% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| NC State O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 56.5 | 83% |
| Spread -9.5 | 82% |
| Spread -12.5 | 77% |
| O/U 58.5 | 77% |
| Spread -13.5 | 75% |
| O/U 48.5 | 72% |
| O/U 50.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -7.5 | 70% |
| Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| O/U 60.5 | 67% |
| Spread -6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 62.5 | 65% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Spread -11.5 | 64% |
| Spread -14.5 | 64% |
| Spread -20.5 | 64% |
| Appalachian State O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| NC State O/U 34.5 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 64.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Spread -15.5 | 53% |
| Spread -17.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| NC State O/U 37.5 | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| NC State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -18.5 | 49% |
| Appalachian State O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -22.5 | 41% |
| O/U 72.5 | 40% |
| Spread -24.5 | 38% |
| O/U 74.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -28.5 | 35% |
| Spread -31.5 | 35% |
| Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| O/U 70.5 | 23% |
| Spread -27.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| Spread -30.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 6% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: appalachian state vs. nc state. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between Appalachian State and NC State, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachia…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $160K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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